Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1.084475 1.315790 1.562506 1.843120 2.151422 2.477971 2.848172
2024-10-13 0.757774 1.066062 1.421104 1.851151 2.349627 2.901882 3.552899
2024-10-20 0.565762 0.899075 1.306647 1.823110 2.443619 3.150901 4.004560
2024-10-27 0.496693 0.868168 1.343260 1.964704 2.729522 3.617469 4.705152
2024-11-03 0.439568 0.839389 1.371739 2.087197 2.985337 4.043544 5.354929
2024-11-10 0.392287 0.815269 1.399828 2.204517 3.232001 4.457675 5.991233
2024-11-17 0.353301 0.796043 1.429354 2.319926 3.473924 4.865048 6.619646
2024-11-24 0.300260 0.746220 1.410418 2.367078 3.626860 5.162762 7.116548
2024-12-01 0.244804 0.682506 1.364714 2.372951 3.723197 5.388556 7.525343
2024-12-08 0.182166 0.593075 1.271930 2.307060 3.721016 5.488325 7.778153
2024-12-15 0.131843 0.513496 1.185108 2.242318 3.714798 5.578959 8.016683
2024-12-22 0.100017 0.462379 1.137087 2.228036 3.771805 5.746314 8.347207
2024-12-29 0.077525 0.428358 1.118482 2.262275 3.903993 6.022787 8.831493
2025-01-05 0.054901 0.384811 1.079196 2.263575 3.991059 6.242959 9.248971
2025-01-12 0.034883 0.336048 1.023584 2.234673 4.032184 6.400497 9.585178
2025-01-19 0.033876 0.350951 1.087369 2.393053 4.337681 6.905198 10.362683
2025-01-26 0.031322 0.359010 1.137883 2.530797 4.614773 7.373795 11.096078
2025-02-02 0.028509 0.364888 1.184018 2.661936 4.883307 7.832365 11.818493
2025-02-09 0.025805 0.370037 1.228548 2.790803 5.149324 8.288708 12.539651
2025-02-16 0.019121 0.352601 1.226227 2.843340 5.306017 8.600964 13.078047
2025-02-23 0.011863 0.323515 1.196864 2.849888 5.395454 8.823587 13.502000
2025-03-02 0.004618 0.275824 1.121670 2.776444 5.365995 8.885847 13.719041
2025-03-09 0.001007 0.233188 1.050141 2.704195 5.334729 8.943152 13.927783